Chicago • Operation Capture the Flagg ended in failure for the Utah Jazz.
After enduring their worst season in franchise history in 2025 in the hopes of landing the No. 1 pick, on Monday night, the lottery pingpong balls went the opposite way.
Utah dropped to the fifth pick in the 2025 NBA draft, continuing its 51-year streak of never holding the top pick.
“We’re not shocked,” Jazz general manager Justin Zanik said after learning his team would fall as far as possible to No. 5. “This was always the most likely individual outcome that we expected and kind of prepared for, given the flattened lottery odds since 2019.”
The organization was guaranteed a top-five selection heading into the night and held a 14% chance at the top prize. They shared those odds for the No. 1 pick with the Hornets and Wizards, but all three teams lost the lottery, as lower-odds teams pushed to the forefront. The odds the Jazz would fall to No. 5, meanwhile, were 47%.
Inside the league’s sequestered lottery room, one by one, pingpong balls were selected from a group of 14 within an air-blown hopper. Given their slot as the worst team in the NBA, the Jazz were given the 140 combinations of balls labeled with the lowest numbers. In order to win the lottery, a No. 1 ball would have to come up at some point in the draw — plus a 2, a 3, or a 4.
The drawing of the balls was separated by 10 seconds each, giving the hopper time to randomize the selection.
The first ball selected was a 10. The second was a 14. The third was an 11.
Three balls and 30 seconds in, and the Jazz’s chances at No. 1 were already gone.
The fourth ball, a seven, pushed the result well down the lottery odds to the 11th most likely team, the Dallas Mavericks. As a result, they’ll have the chance to select Duke’s star player Cooper Flagg, the unquestioned top prize of the draft. Dallas had just a 1.8% chance at the top pick coming into the day.
Gasps were heard around the lottery room, even an “Oh my God,” at the fortune of the Mavericks and head executive Nico Harrison. Flagg, college basketball’s best player last year and also one of its youngest, will now usurp star player status in Dallas from the recently traded Luka Doncic.
There wasn’t much time for reaction, though — next came the draft for the second overall selection. While Flagg was off the board, the chance still remained to select Rutgers’ Dylan Harper, who would once again be a massive win for Utah’s rebuild.
The first ball selected in round two was a 12. Then a 13. Then an 11.
Once again, the Jazz were mathematically eliminated from winning the pick as soon as possible.
The fourth ball, a 5, meant the San Antonio Spurs would get the second overall pick — and the chance to draft Harper, tying him to wunderkind Victor Wembanyama.
The draws for the remaining two lottery spots gave the Jazz more of a chance. (They went 3-7-5-10 and 3-5-2-11, for the curious.) But once again, that No. 1 ball was never selected, locking the Jazz out of the lottery completely and dooming them to a No. 5 selection.
Zanik repeatedly looked at Will Hawkins, the Washington Wizards’ executive seated next to him, in seeming disbelief at their teams’ misfortunes. Both of them had dedicated the 2024-25 season to losing for this moment, and neither ended up with a top-four selection.
Later, on the TV stage, Jazz co-owner Ashley Smith looked shocked, while Ryan Smith and family quickly left the massive conference room in clear disappointment.
There are still good options at the No. 5 pick, Zanik said. Rutgers’ other star, Ace Bailey, could be available. Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe is seen as a top-five pick; Texas’ Tre Johnson is another possibility.
“There is a pool of players that have a lot of high ceilings, a lot of high floors, all very young, differing positions,” Zanik said about the possible players available at No. 5. “We’re going to have a lot to look at to see what’s the best fit for our team. I mean, it could be anywhere from eight or nine different players in kind of that range.”
But there’s no doubt about it: The quality of prospect lessens after the top selection or two. The outcome adds to the letdown of a fan base that was holding out hope for a franchise-changing player who could push the team to wins again. On social media platforms like X and Bluesky, fans expressed massive disappointment that the year of losing wasn’t rewarded.
Zanik defended the Jazz’s decision to rebuild, despite Monday’s lottery results.
“In a rebuild, you need good fortune and luck. But this is the best path for our organization. ... These are the rules of the lottery, this is what we all knew about. This is not changing anytime soon,” he said. “But as an organization, we want to build a championship window ... and of the rules that are presented, given the team that we have right now, at this moment this is the best route.”
The Jazz also hold Minnesota’s No. 1 pick, acquired in the Rudy Gobert trade. That selection will be No. 21. The Mavericks’ move to No. 1 also served to break the tiebreak between the Bulls and Jazz between the No. 42 and No. 43 pick; the Jazz fell to No. 43 as a result of the Mavericks’ good fortune. The Jazz also own the No. 53 pick.
It’s the time-honored utterance of all losing teams at the end of a season: “Well, maybe next year.”
The Jazz look likely to once again find themselves in that lottery room again next year, counting on the balls to blow a different way.
Odds heading into the lottery
